Fact-Checking Four Claims About Living Costs, Foreign Reserve Under Tinubu
On April 8, 2025, an X user, @GoziconC made several claims about President Tinubu’s economic performance since he assumed office as Nigeria’s president in 2023.
The post contained Tinubu’s image and the caption, “The price of cooking Gas is crashing. The price of petrol is crashing. Dollar rate is crashing and Naira is becoming stronger. Our foreign reserve is looking good. Omo! We voted the right guy!” .
This claim had over 44,4000 views, as of the time this report was published. in the comment section, @IamSpecial_Kay wrote, “The sudden drop in prices and strengthening of the naira seem too perfectly timed. Real progress is felt by the people, not just seen in headlines. This looks more like political optics than lasting change.” while @watpapping said “What is your debt profile for the last 19months? You voted a terrible person”.
CLAIM 1
The price of cooking gas is crashing.
VERIFICATION
As of April 2025, the average price of cooking gas in Nigeria has significantly increased compared to when President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. In May 2023, the average price for refilling a 5 kg cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LPG, was 4,360.69 Naira. By April 2024, this price had risen to 6,521.58 Naira, marking a 49.5 percent increase over the 11 month period.
Although specific data for March and April 2025 is not available, reports from February 2025 indicate that the price continued to rise, reaching 7,072.10 Naira for a 5 kg cylinder. This upward trend suggests that the price of cooking gas has not decreased since May 2023; rather, it has experienced a substantial increase.
VERDICT
The claim that the price of cooking gas is crashing is MISLEADING as price statistics show that there has been a significant increase since May 2023.
CLAIM 2
The price of petrol is crashing
VERIFICATION
As of April 2025, the price of petrol in Nigeria has significantly increased compared to when President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. At the time of his inauguration, the average retail price for Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) was approximately 238.11 Naira per litre. Following the removal of the fuel subsidy announced during his inaugural address, prices surged to between 448 Naira and 557 Naira per litre. According to NBS, the average retail price paid by consumers for PMS in December 2024 was 1189.12 naira, a 76.99 percent increase compared to the value recorded in December 2023 (671.86 naira). Subsequent increments have led to the current pump price reaching up to 950 Naira per litre in some areas.
VERDICT
The claim that the price of petrol is crashing is MISLEADING. Due to the removal of fuel subsidy, there has been substantial increase in petrol prices since Tinubu assumed office.
CLAIM 3
Dollar rate is crashing and the Naira is becoming stronger.
VERIFICATION
As of April 3, 2025, the Nigerian Naira was trading at approximately 1,530 to 1,550 Naira per one U.S. dollar in the official market. This represents a significant depreciation compared to May 29, 2023, when the exchange rate averaged around 460.702 Naira per dollar. This decline is largely attributed to economic reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the removal of petrol subsidies and currency devaluation, which aimed to address market distortions but led to short-term economic challenges. Therefore, the Naira has weakened considerably against the dollar since President Tinubu assumed office in 2023.
VERDICT
The claim that the Dollar rate is crashing and the Naira is becoming stronger is MISLEADING. The Naira has weakened considerably against the dollar since President Tinubu assumed office in 2023
CLAIM 4
Our foreign reserve is looking good.
VERIFICATION
As of April 2025, Nigeria’s foreign reserves have shown a positive trend compared to when President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. At that time, the reserves was estimated at 35.09 billion U.S Dollars. By March 27, 2025, the reserves had increased to 38.33 billion U.S Dollars. This growth indicates an improvement in the country’s external financial position during President Tinubu’s tenure.
However, it is important to note that the reserves experienced fluctuations during this period. For instance, in the first quarter of 2025, the reserves declined by 2.55 billion U.S Dollars, a 6.23 percent decrease from 40.88 billion U.S Dollars on January 2 to 38.33 billion U.S Dollars on March 27. This decline was attributed to factors such as minimal petrodollar earnings and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the naira. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trajectory from May 2023 to April 2025 reflects a net increase in foreign reserves, suggesting a strengthening of Nigeria’s external financial position under the current administration.
VERDICT
The claim that our foreign reserve is looking good is TRUE. The overall trajectory from May 2023 to April 2025 reflects a net increase in foreign reserves, suggesting a strengthening of Nigeria’s external financial position under the current administration.
CONCLUSION
Out of the 4 claims, the claims regarding LPG, PMS and dollar rate are MISLEADING while the one regarding the foreign reserve is TRUE. Hence, the claims about President Tinubu’s economic performance, noting that LPG price, PMS price, dollar rate and foreign reserve since he assumed office as Nigeria’s president in 2023 are MOSTLY MISLEADING.
