Muzha Azariah Kucha
On July 31, 2024, the Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Social Media, Olusegun Dada with the X username, @DOlusegun posted an infographic showing how the president had improved Nigeria’s economy since inauguration in May 2023.
Dada shared Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves, Minimum Wage, Ways and Means Debt, Forex Backlog, Oil Production, Debt to Revenue Ratio data from when Tinubu assumed office and after one year in office as president.
The X post has since garnered over 1.2 million impressions. Although this data was shared by a government spokesman, the Tinubu administration has previously been found to have spread mis-information through its official channels and spokespersons.
VERIFICATION
NV-A sought to verify each of the figures presented by Olusegun Dada to authenticate or debunk them.
Foreign Reserves
The claim shows that President Tinubu raised the Foreign Reserves from $34bn to $37bn.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as of August 23, 2023, the Foreign Reserves stood at $33,751,621,852 (approximately $34bn) while the data shows a rise to $36,797,462,436 (approximately $37bn) as of July 31, 2024.
Minimum Wage
As at May 29, 2023 when President Bola Tinubu assumed office, the national minimum wage was ₦30,000. Former President, Muhammadu Buhari increased the minimum wage to ₦30,000 on October 23, 2019. After months ong negotiation with stakeholders, President Bola Tinubu signed the new National Minimum Wage of ₦70,000 into law on July 29, 2024.
Ways and Means Debt
As of May 29, 2023 when President Tinubu assumed office, the Ways and Means Debt stood at ₦26.95 trillion.
In May 2023, the National Assembly approved the securitization of ₦22.7 trillion Ways and Means (W&M) loans to the Federal Government (FGN), from the ₦26.95 trillion previously advanced by the CBN. This arrangement placed the loans on a tenor of 40 years with a moratorium on principal repayment of three years and an interest rate of 9 percent per annum. This debt has been transferred to the Debt Management Office (DMO).
However, a Nairametrics report found that the Ways and Means borrowing now stands at ₦8.2 trillion as of December 2023, despite the transfer of debt to the DMO. This went up from ₦4.36 trillion in June 2023.
On May 28, 2024, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun disclosed that the Tinubu-led administration had paid the sum of ₦4.8 trillion from its Way and Means debt and another ₦2.5 trillion will be paid in the second quarter of 2024. But, this only brings the total debt paid to ₦7.3 trillion against the original ₦8.2 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦900 million yet to be paid.
Also, this paints a real picture as against the claim that the federal government has not borrowed from the CBN since Tinubu assumed office. Meanwhile, the Tinubu administration did not meet a ₦26 trillion Ways and Means debt as claimed by Dada, but rather inherited ₦4.36 trillion Ways and Means debt.
Forex Backlog
On March 21, 2024 Bloomberg reported that the CBN had settled “all valid” foreign exchange backlogs amounting to $7 billion.
Oil Production
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that total oil production (crude oil, blended and unblended condensate) was 1,430,146 bpd in May 2023. The NUPRC data on total oil production as of July 2024 was put at 1,533,698 bpd. This shows that there was only 100,000 bpd increase in oil production within a 14 month period as against the 600,000 bpd rise claimed by the president’s aide.
Debt to Revenue Ratio
Dada also claimed that the President met the Debt to Revenue Ratio at 97 percent. Checks revealed that the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, confirmed that Nigeria’s Revenue to Debt Service Ratio declined from 97% in 2023 to 68% in 2024, as of July 2024, indicating a reduction in the debt burden of the government.
CONCLUSION
The claims made by the Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Social Media, Olusegun Dada on Tinubu’s scorecard with the economy is PARTIALLY TRUE. The data for Foreign Reserves, Minimum Wage, Forex Backlog, and Debt to Revenue Ratio checks out as TRUE but the data provided for the Official Oil production and Ways and Means are MISLEADING.
